The 2026 UK Economic Outlook and Growth Strategies

Trading organizations were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared to December 2025, omitting any seasonal trading. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Nearly a 3rd (31%) of trading businesses reported that their turnover had actually reduced in January 2026 compared with the previous month.

However, the motions are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The markets with the highest proportion reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities industry (52%, which is a 21 percentage point increase from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, home entertainment and leisure market (40%) Approximately 16% of trading services reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 percentage point boost compared to December 2025.

For trading organizations with 10 or more employees, 33% reported that their turnover had actually reduced, which was broadly steady compared to December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) businesses reported that their turnover had actually increased, up 2 portion points compared to December 2025. Usually, the percentage of businesses reporting that their turnover increased associated to the size of business.

The exception to this was the proportion for businesses with 250 or more staff members, which was 25%, and 5 portion points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading companies were asked how they anticipate their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be utilized to forecast how the company's turnover will in fact change as soon as that calendar month concludes.

Securing Ethical Supply Chains Across British Sector

Patterns in between anticipated turnover and actual turnover have actually broadly moved in the same direction, the motions for expectations tend to be larger. Care must be taken when interpreting expectations concerns, as the employees responding on behalf of organizations might not have complete oversight of all of their organization's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in five (21%) trading organizations expect their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 portion point increase from February 2026 but was broadly stable compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading organizations anticipating an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the percentage that reported an actual increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a small pessimism in services expectations.

The patterns have actually broadly followed each other since the concerns were presented in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the percentage of organizations anticipating turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Bigger organizations were most likely to anticipate a boost in turnover in March, with the proportion varying from 20% for businesses with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for businesses with 100 to 249 staff members.

For presentational purposes, some reaction options have been gotten rid of. Data are outlined in the middle of the duration of each wave. Care needs to be taken when translating expectations questions, as the staff members responding on behalf of organizations might not have full oversight of all of their business's future expectations. "." represents information not yet offered.

Leveraging AI for Strategic Workforce Management in 2026

The proportion of trading services that anticipated a reduction in January 2026 was 25%, while the proportion that reported an actual decline in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The proportion of businesses expecting turnover to decrease for a particular month ahead of time has actually stayed significantly lower than the proportion of businesses reporting an actual reduction because month since April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to decrease have regularly followed the same pattern, as actual reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading businesses were asked what difficulties, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading organizations reported that economic unpredictability was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly steady with early January 2026.

This is broadly steady compared to early January 2026 and 2 percentage points down compared to a year earlier. For trading organizations with 10 or more workers, expense of labour was the most regularly reported obstacle, at 36%. This was broadly stable compared to early January 2026. Businesses with 10 to 49 staff members were more most likely to report expense of labour as an obstacle than services with 250 or more workers (37%, compared to 20%). One in five (20%) trading businesses with 10 or more workers indicated that they were not currently experiencing any turnover obstacles in early February 2026. Additional details on financial efficiency, including all response choices categorised by industry and size band, are offered in our accompanying dataset.