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Trading companies were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared to December 2025, omitting any seasonal trading. Data are outlined in the middle of the period of each wave. Nearly a third (31%) of trading businesses reported that their turnover had actually decreased in January 2026 compared with the previous month.
The movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The industries with the greatest proportion reporting that turnover decreased in January 2026 were: the lodging and food service activities industry (52%, which is a 21 percentage point increase from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, entertainment and recreation market (40%) Roughly 16% of trading businesses reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 percentage point increase compared with December 2025.
For trading organizations with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had actually decreased, which was broadly stable compared with December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) organizations reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 portion points compared with December 2025. Normally, the percentage of businesses reporting that their turnover increased associated to the size of business.
Managing the 2026 Workforce for Enterprise AgilityThe exception to this was the percentage for organizations with 250 or more employees, which was 25%, and 5 portion points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading organizations were asked how they anticipate their turnover to alter in the coming month. This can then be used to predict how the business's turnover will actually alter once that calendar month concludes.
Trends in between predicted turnover and actual turnover have actually broadly moved in the exact same instructions, the movements for expectations tend to be larger. Caution needs to be taken when analyzing expectations questions, as the workers responding on behalf of services may not have full oversight of all of their service's future expectations.
More than one in 5 (21%) trading organizations anticipate their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 portion point increase from February 2026 however was broadly stable compared with expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading companies anticipating a boost in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported a real boost in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, suggesting a minor pessimism in businesses expectations.
However, the patterns have actually broadly followed each other because the concerns were introduced in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the trend from previous years, with the portion of companies expecting turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Larger companies were most likely to expect an increase in turnover in March, with the percentage varying from 20% for services with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for businesses with 100 to 249 workers.
For presentational functions, some action options have been gotten rid of. Information are outlined in the middle of the period of each wave. Caution must be taken when analyzing expectations concerns, as the workers reacting on behalf of companies might not have full oversight of all of their service's future expectations. "." represents information not yet offered.
Mapping the UK Economic Outlook and Growth PredictionsThe proportion of trading companies that anticipated a reduction in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported a real decrease in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of organizations anticipating turnover to decrease for a specific month ahead of time has actually remained substantially lower than the proportion of businesses reporting a real decline because month given that April 2022.
However, expectations for turnover to reduce have regularly followed the very same trend, as actual reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading companies were asked what obstacles, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that financial uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.
This is broadly steady compared with early January 2026 and 2 percentage points down compared with a year earlier. For trading services with 10 or more employees, cost of labour was the most frequently reported challenge, at 36%. This was broadly steady compared with early January 2026. Services with 10 to 49 staff members were most likely to report expense of labour as an obstacle than organizations with 250 or more workers (37%, compared with 20%). One in 5 (20%) trading services with 10 or more staff members indicated that they were not presently experiencing any turnover obstacles in early February 2026. Further details on financial performance, consisting of all action options categorised by industry and size band, are readily available in our accompanying dataset.
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